guanghu/demo-vault-v2/refactoring-business-plan.md
Guanghu Domestic Migration 9b41d51231
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chore: import sanitized domestic snapshot for REPO-004
Source snapshot: 514ab1975951d94342ea38e64101d5a0f1c51c77
2026-07-17 15:55:28 +08:00

12 KiB

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Refactoring business plan,3-year monthly operating model,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Start free newsletter subscribers,2500,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Monthly free subscriber growth rate,0.07,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Monthly free subscriber churn,0.012,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Paid conversion rate on incremental audience,0.035,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Paid subscription price,12,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Paid subscriber monthly churn,0.035,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Sponsorship CPM,55,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Sponsorship slots per month,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Average open rate,0.46,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Consulting project price,6000,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Consulting projects per month at maturity,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Month #,Month,Free subscribers,Paid subscribers,Paid conversion,Newsletter revenue,Sponsor impressions,Sponsorship revenue,Consulting revenue,Digital products,Total revenue,Content/Ops,Tools,Contractors,Marketing,Total expenses,Net profit,Cumulative cash,Key hypothesis 1,Jun 2026,=$B$2,=C15*$B$5,=D15/C15,=D15*$B$6,=C15*$B$10,=G15/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=1/36*$B$12*$B$11,=150,=F15+H15+I15+J15,=1500+A1550,=350+A1510,=0,=C150.12,=SUM(L15:O15),=K15-P15,=Q15,Validate positioning and grow high-signal audience 2,Jul 2026,=C15*(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D15*(1-$B$7)+(C16-C15)$B$5,=D16/C16,=D16$B$6,=C16*$B$10,=G16/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=2/36*$B$12*$B$11,=250,=F16+H16+I16+J16,=1500+A1650,=350+A1610,=0,=C160.12,=SUM(L16:O16),=K16-P16,=R15+Q16,Validate positioning and grow high-signal audience 3,Aug 2026,=C16*(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D16*(1-$B$7)+(C17-C16)$B$5,=D17/C17,=D17$B$6,=C17*$B$10,=G17/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=3/36*$B$12*$B$11,=350,=F17+H17+I17+J17,=1500+A1750,=350+A1710,=0,=C170.12,=SUM(L17:O17),=K17-P17,=R16+Q17,Validate positioning and grow high-signal audience 4,Sep 2026,=C17*(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D17*(1-$B$7)+(C18-C17)$B$5,=D18/C18,=D18$B$6,=C18*$B$10,=G18/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=4/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450,=F18+H18+I18+J18,=1500+A1850,=350+A1810,=0,=C180.12,=SUM(L18:O18),=K18-P18,=R17+Q18,Validate positioning and grow high-signal audience 5,Oct 2026,=C18*(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D18*(1-$B$7)+(C19-C18)$B$5,=D19/C19,=D19$B$6,=C19*$B$10,=G19/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=5/36*$B$12*$B$11,=550,=F19+H19+I19+J19,=1500+A1950,=350+A1910,=0,=C190.12,=SUM(L19:O19),=K19-P19,=R18+Q19,Validate positioning and grow high-signal audience 6,Nov 2026,=C19*(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D19*(1-$B$7)+(C20-C19)$B$5,=D20/C20,=D20$B$6,=C20*$B$10,=G20/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=6/36*$B$12*$B$11,=650,=F20+H20+I20+J20,=1500+A2050,=350+A2010,=0,=C200.12,=SUM(L20:O20),=K20-P20,=R19+Q20,Validate positioning and grow high-signal audience 7,Dec 2026,=C20*(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D20*(1-$B$7)+(C21-C20)$B$5,=D21/C21,=D21$B$6,=C21*$B$10,=G21/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=7/36*$B$12*$B$11,=750,=F21+H21+I21+J21,=1500+A2150,=350+A2110,=2000+A21125,=C210.12,=SUM(L21:O21),=K21-P21,=R20+Q21,Package repeatable advisory offers and first sponsors 8,Jan 2027,=C21(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D21*(1-$B$7)+(C22-C21)$B$5,=D22/C22,=D22$B$6,=C22*$B$10,=G22/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=8/36*$B$12*$B$11,=850,=F22+H22+I22+J22,=1500+A2250,=350+A2210,=2000+A22125,=C220.12,=SUM(L22:O22),=K22-P22,=R21+Q22,Package repeatable advisory offers and first sponsors 9,Feb 2027,=C22(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D22*(1-$B$7)+(C23-C22)$B$5,=D23/C23,=D23$B$6,=C23*$B$10,=G23/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=9/36*$B$12*$B$11,=950,=F23+H23+I23+J23,=1500+A2350,=350+A2310,=2000+A23125,=C230.12,=SUM(L23:O23),=K23-P23,=R22+Q23,Package repeatable advisory offers and first sponsors 10,Mar 2027,=C23(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D23*(1-$B$7)+(C24-C23)$B$5,=D24/C24,=D24$B$6,=C24*$B$10,=G24/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=10/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(10-9)175,=F24+H24+I24+J24,=1500+A2450,=350+A2410,=2000+A24125,=C240.12,=SUM(L24:O24),=K24-P24,=R23+Q24,Package repeatable advisory offers and first sponsors 11,Apr 2027,=C24(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D24*(1-$B$7)+(C25-C24)$B$5,=D25/C25,=D25$B$6,=C25*$B$10,=G25/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=11/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(11-9)175,=F25+H25+I25+J25,=1500+A2550,=350+A2510,=2000+A25125,=C250.12,=SUM(L25:O25),=K25-P25,=R24+Q25,Package repeatable advisory offers and first sponsors 12,May 2027,=C25(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D25*(1-$B$7)+(C26-C25)$B$5,=D26/C26,=D26$B$6,=C26*$B$10,=G26/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=12/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(12-9)175,=F26+H26+I26+J26,=1500+A2650,=350+A2610,=2000+A26125,=C260.12,=SUM(L26:O26),=K26-P26,=R25+Q26,Package repeatable advisory offers and first sponsors 13,Jun 2027,=C26(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D26*(1-$B$7)+(C27-C26)$B$5,=D27/C27,=D27$B$6,=C27*$B$10,=G27/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=13/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(13-9)175,=F27+H27+I27+J27,=1500+A2750,=350+A2710,=2000+A27125,=C270.12,=SUM(L27:O27),=K27-P27,=R26+Q27,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 14,Jul 2027,=C27(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D27*(1-$B$7)+(C28-C27)$B$5,=D28/C28,=D28$B$6,=C28*$B$10,=G28/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=14/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(14-9)175,=F28+H28+I28+J28,=1500+A2850,=350+A2810,=2000+A28125,=C280.12,=SUM(L28:O28),=K28-P28,=R27+Q28,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 15,Aug 2027,=C28(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D28*(1-$B$7)+(C29-C28)$B$5,=D29/C29,=D29$B$6,=C29*$B$10,=G29/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=15/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(15-9)175,=F29+H29+I29+J29,=1500+A2950,=350+A2910,=2000+A29125,=C290.12,=SUM(L29:O29),=K29-P29,=R28+Q29,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 16,Sep 2027,=C29(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D29*(1-$B$7)+(C30-C29)$B$5,=D30/C30,=D30$B$6,=C30*$B$10,=G30/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=16/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(16-9)175,=F30+H30+I30+J30,=1500+A3050,=350+A3010,=2000+A30125,=C300.12,=SUM(L30:O30),=K30-P30,=R29+Q30,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 17,Oct 2027,=C30(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D30*(1-$B$7)+(C31-C30)$B$5,=D31/C31,=D31$B$6,=C31*$B$10,=G31/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=17/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(17-9)175,=F31+H31+I31+J31,=1500+A3150,=350+A3110,=2000+A31125,=C310.12,=SUM(L31:O31),=K31-P31,=R30+Q31,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 18,Nov 2027,=C31(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D31*(1-$B$7)+(C32-C31)$B$5,=D32/C32,=D32$B$6,=C32*$B$10,=G32/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=18/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(18-9)175,=F32+H32+I32+J32,=1500+A3250,=350+A3210,=2000+A32125,=C320.12,=SUM(L32:O32),=K32-P32,=R31+Q32,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 19,Dec 2027,=C32(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D32*(1-$B$7)+(C33-C32)$B$5,=D33/C33,=D33$B$6,=C33*$B$10,=G33/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=19/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(19-9)175,=F33+H33+I33+J33,=1500+A3350,=350+A3310,=2000+A33125,=C330.12,=SUM(L33:O33),=K33-P33,=R32+Q33,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 20,Jan 2028,=C33(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D33*(1-$B$7)+(C34-C33)$B$5,=D34/C34,=D34$B$6,=C34*$B$10,=G34/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=20/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(20-9)175,=F34+H34+I34+J34,=1500+A3450,=350+A3410,=2000+A34125,=C340.12,=SUM(L34:O34),=K34-P34,=R33+Q34,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 21,Feb 2028,=C34(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D34*(1-$B$7)+(C35-C34)$B$5,=D35/C35,=D35$B$6,=C35*$B$10,=G35/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=21/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(21-9)175,=F35+H35+I35+J35,=1500+A3550,=350+A3510,=2000+A35125,=C350.12,=SUM(L35:O35),=K35-P35,=R34+Q35,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 22,Mar 2028,=C35(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D35*(1-$B$7)+(C36-C35)$B$5,=D36/C36,=D36$B$6,=C36*$B$10,=G36/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=22/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(22-9)175,=F36+H36+I36+J36,=1500+A3650,=350+A3610,=2000+A36125,=C360.12,=SUM(L36:O36),=K36-P36,=R35+Q36,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 23,Apr 2028,=C36(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D36*(1-$B$7)+(C37-C36)$B$5,=D37/C37,=D37$B$6,=C37*$B$10,=G37/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=23/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(23-9)175,=F37+H37+I37+J37,=1500+A3750,=350+A3710,=2000+A37125,=C370.12,=SUM(L37:O37),=K37-P37,=R36+Q37,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 24,May 2028,=C37(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D37*(1-$B$7)+(C38-C37)$B$5,=D38/C38,=D38$B$6,=C38*$B$10,=G38/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=24/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(24-9)175,=F38+H38+I38+J38,=1500+A3850,=350+A3810,=2000+A38125,=C380.12,=SUM(L38:O38),=K38-P38,=R37+Q38,Scale paid membership and recurring sponsorship inventory 25,Jun 2028,=C38(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D38*(1-$B$7)+(C39-C38)$B$5,=D39/C39,=D39$B$6,=C39*$B$10,=G39/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=25/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(25-9)175,=F39+H39+I39+J39,=1500+A3950,=350+A3910,=2000+A39125,=C390.12,=SUM(L39:O39),=K39-P39,=R38+Q39,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 26,Jul 2028,=C39(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D39*(1-$B$7)+(C40-C39)$B$5,=D40/C40,=D40$B$6,=C40*$B$10,=G40/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=26/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(26-9)175,=F40+H40+I40+J40,=1500+A4050,=350+A4010,=2000+A40125,=C400.12,=SUM(L40:O40),=K40-P40,=R39+Q40,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 27,Aug 2028,=C40(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D40*(1-$B$7)+(C41-C40)$B$5,=D41/C41,=D41$B$6,=C41*$B$10,=G41/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=27/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(27-9)175,=F41+H41+I41+J41,=1500+A4150,=350+A4110,=2000+A41125,=C410.12,=SUM(L41:O41),=K41-P41,=R40+Q41,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 28,Sep 2028,=C41(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D41*(1-$B$7)+(C42-C41)$B$5,=D42/C42,=D42$B$6,=C42*$B$10,=G42/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=28/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(28-9)175,=F42+H42+I42+J42,=1500+A4250,=350+A4210,=2000+A42125,=C420.12,=SUM(L42:O42),=K42-P42,=R41+Q42,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 29,Oct 2028,=C42(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D42*(1-$B$7)+(C43-C42)$B$5,=D43/C43,=D43$B$6,=C43*$B$10,=G43/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=29/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(29-9)175,=F43+H43+I43+J43,=1500+A4350,=350+A4310,=2000+A43125,=C430.12,=SUM(L43:O43),=K43-P43,=R42+Q43,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 30,Nov 2028,=C43(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D43*(1-$B$7)+(C44-C43)$B$5,=D44/C44,=D44$B$6,=C44*$B$10,=G44/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=30/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(30-9)175,=F44+H44+I44+J44,=1500+A4450,=350+A4410,=2000+A44125,=C440.12,=SUM(L44:O44),=K44-P44,=R43+Q44,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 31,Dec 2028,=C44(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D44*(1-$B$7)+(C45-C44)$B$5,=D45/C45,=D45$B$6,=C45*$B$10,=G45/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=31/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(31-9)175,=F45+H45+I45+J45,=1500+A4550,=350+A4510,=2000+A45125,=C450.12,=SUM(L45:O45),=K45-P45,=R44+Q45,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 32,Jan 2029,=C45(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D45*(1-$B$7)+(C46-C45)$B$5,=D46/C46,=D46$B$6,=C46*$B$10,=G46/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=32/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(32-9)175,=F46+H46+I46+J46,=1500+A4650,=350+A4610,=2000+A46125,=C460.12,=SUM(L46:O46),=K46-P46,=R45+Q46,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 33,Feb 2029,=C46(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D46*(1-$B$7)+(C47-C46)$B$5,=D47/C47,=D47$B$6,=C47*$B$10,=G47/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=33/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(33-9)175,=F47+H47+I47+J47,=1500+A4750,=350+A4710,=2000+A47125,=C470.12,=SUM(L47:O47),=K47-P47,=R46+Q47,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 34,Mar 2029,=C47(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D47*(1-$B$7)+(C48-C47)$B$5,=D48/C48,=D48$B$6,=C48*$B$10,=G48/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=34/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(34-9)175,=F48+H48+I48+J48,=1500+A4850,=350+A4810,=2000+A48125,=C480.12,=SUM(L48:O48),=K48-P48,=R47+Q48,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 35,Apr 2029,=C48(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D48*(1-$B$7)+(C49-C48)$B$5,=D49/C49,=D49$B$6,=C49*$B$10,=G49/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=35/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(35-9)175,=F49+H49+I49+J49,=1500+A4950,=350+A4910,=2000+A49125,=C490.12,=SUM(L49:O49),=K49-P49,=R48+Q49,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency 36,May 2029,=C49(1+$B$3-$B$4),=D49*(1-$B$7)+(C50-C49)$B$5,=D50/C50,=D50$B$6,=C50*$B$10,=G50/1000*$B$8*$B$9,=36/36*$B$12*$B$11,=450+(36-9)175,=F50+H50+I50+J50,=1500+A5050,=350+A5010,=2000+A50125,=C50*0.12,=SUM(L50:O50),=K50-P50,=R49+Q50,Expand products and reduce founder-delivery dependency